外文翻译
原文
蝉古诗Tourism Real Estate Developments in Northeast Brazil
Material source：ADIT-NE Author：Diogo Canteras INTRODUCTION
This article is focused on the Tourism Real Estate in Northeast Brazil, a market that evolved swiftly in the past few years as the result of worldwide cheap capital availability, improved tourism destinations, perceived investment potential, a favorable exchange rate and low Brazilian asset prices.
The information, analyses and conclusions presented herein are the result of an extensive researched carried out by HVS and Newmark Knight Frank on behalf of ADIT–NE (Association for the Development of the Tourism Real Estate Market in Northeast Brazil).The Association’s goal is to provide relevant information and analyses to government authorities, investors and developers, in order to assist planning and decision making. The research included vast secondary data collection, field works all over the Northeastern cost and more than 70 interviews with developers, government authorities, brokers, consultant and investors. Its main findings were presented in Norderstedt Invest 2008 (an industry meeting).The complete research and findings will be published by ADIT-NE soon.
This article has six sections apart from this introduction. The first two sections present our definition of the tourism real estate market and shows current market data and projections of supply and demand for residential units in tourism real estate developments. The third and fourth sections present the resort market’s perfo rmance as well as project supply and demand for resort drivers affecting the tourism real estate market in Brazil, draw some conclusion and provide
Recommend dictions for industry stakeholders.
THE TOURISM REAL ESTATE MARKET
Tourism real estate properties are those located at desired tourist destinations, composed by second-home units and large tourism and leisure facilities such as hotels, parks, marinas, golf courses, etc. These facilities enhance tourist experience, induce tourist flows and provide services to guests and owners. Therefore, they
improve desirability and leverage prices and sales speed of residential units. Although the operation of such facilities may be unprofitable, the value they add usually increases the projects’ overall value.
There are 48 tourism real estate complexes operating or under-development in Northeast Brazil. The stock of residential units and land plots in tourism real estate developments locates in Northeast Brazil amount approximately 1,900 units. In the past three years, sales speed ranged from 20 to 100 units annually, per project. Sales were phased in blocks of 100 to 300 units (most frequently from 100 to 150).
Second-home sales prices per square meter of built area ranges from R$ 2.500,00 to R$ 3.500,00 for midmarket products or products in less desired locations; from R$ 3.500,00 to R$ 5.000,00 for upscale products; and from R$ 5.000,00 to R$ 7.000,00 in high-end products. Comparing to other countries, Northeastern-Brazil prices are still low (although in accordance with the national reality) as demonstrated in picture 2. Land sales prices per linear beach-front meters vary significantly, as shown in picture 3. Destination attractiveness and stage of development explain part of the price variations. Some of the most attractive and expensive destinations in Northeast Brazil are Pipa (RN); Porto de Galina’s (PE); Maraú (BA); Itacaré (BA); and Trancoso (BA).
During the past seven years, there has been a great increase in land sales price. Currently the perception is that prices are overvalued, given the expected revenue and sales speed of residential units in tourism real estate projects.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST
In the first half of 2008, the aggregate announced supply of planned tourism real estate projects totaled over 78 thousand residential units. We estimate, however, that only about 7 thousand units will be built by 2014. Our forecasts are subject to the following assumptions:
1.Average annual GDP growth of 4% to 5% and achievement of inflation targets
throughout the projection period.
2.Resumption of North American and European economic growth in tandem with
the end of the financial crisis, starting in the second half of 2009.
3.Absence of new domestic or international economic crises.
4.Maintenance of Brazil’s current tourism development strategy in federal and
state level.
Additionally, our forecasts took into consideration the following information: 1.Existing supply took 30
years to developed amount only 1900 units, and sales
Speed in the past years was somewhat limited (as stated previously), even with Very favorable market conditions.
白底照片2.Although there has been an increase in foreign demand, it has been significantly
冒险岛任务大全Lower than most expectations, even in a favorable environment. In the short-term, there are factors (such as the international financial crisis) that will hinder foreign demand. In the mid-term, foreign demand should increase again, but there are no signs that such demand will be much higher than the previously observed or high enough to absorb the announced supply of residential units. 3.Traditionally, large developments take several years to build and sell all
residential units, as they are usually developed in small phases. If any phase underperforms (sells slowly or at low prices), subsequent phases are suspended until market conditions improve. Thus, the market mechanisms prevent supply growing faster than demand in normal times.
4.Based on this information and on the individual analysis of all existing projects,
we developed a forecast of supply and demand for a seven year period. This time span reflects our
estimation of the period required for projects under development to finish at least their first or current phase.文字谜
Given the close relationship between supply and demand, we expect future demand for tourism real estate residential units in Northeastern Brazil will be sufficient to absorb the projected supply.
This expectation (base scenario) is represented by the blue line in Picture 5. This Picture also presents demand forecasts for two extreme alternative scenarios. The occurrence of these scenarios is subject to the behavior of the following variables: exchange rates, air-travel accessibility, financing availability, the interna tional promotion of Brazil’s tourism i ndustry.
The optimistic scenario assumes the exchange rate will rise and stay at relatively high levels, making the Brazilian product cheaper for international buyers. This increased competitiveness along with investment in infrastructure and marketing will increase attractiveness and air-travel accessibility. Simultaneously, the end of the international financial crisis and resumption of international growth will foster the availability of finance.
The pessimistic scenario assumes the overvalued local currency, the lack overinvestment in infrastructure and promotion, and the absence of financing options, will make Brazil unattractive for i
烛光晚餐菜谱nternational buyers. Consequently, the tourism real estate market becomes exclusively dependant on the domestic demand,
which would rise as the result of the expected economic growth.
译文
巴西东北部旅游房地产市场开发
资料来源：ADIT–NE作者：Diogo Canteras 引言
这篇文章重点讲述的是巴西东北部的旅游房地产市场，这是一个在过去几年迅速演化为全球化的廉价资本的可利用性市场，这个市场很好的改善了旅游目的地，让人们意识到投资的潜力，以及有利的汇率和较低的巴西资产率。
这个信息是HVS和Newmark Knight Frank代表在ADIT–NE（在巴西东北部的一个发展旅游房地产市场的协会）分析总结的。该协会的目标是提供有关信息结果和分析，以政府主管部门，投资者和开发商，以协助规划和决策。这项研究包括广大的第二元数据采集，遍布东北的各个地方和与70多个开发商，政府机关，经纪，顾问和投资者。其主要研究发现发表于Nordeste投资2008（一个行业会议）。完整的研究和调查结果将由ADIT–NE很快发表。
文章总共分为六个部分，第一和第二部分主要阐述了我们对旅游房地产市场的定义，并且显示当前的市场数据，以及供给和需求的推算，和旅游房地产住宅单位的发展。第三和第四部分阐述度假市场的表现，以及这个度假圣地项目中客房的供应和需求。第五和第六部分讨论司机对旅游房地产市场的影响，从而得出一些结论，并且提供业内人士的建议。
旅游房地产市场
旅游房地产是指那些位于理想的旅游目的地，组成的第二个家和大型旅游休闲设施，如酒店，公园，游艇码头，高尔夫球场等，这些设施，大大的提高旅游体验，诱导旅游人的流动和向客人提供良好的服务。因此，他们充分提高住宅单位的可取性，以及灵活的价格和销售速度。尽管这些设施很可能无利可图，但是新增的价值通常会提高项目整体的价值。
这里总共有48个旅游房产的复合经营或者未发展的房产在巴西东北部。住宅的股票单位和旅游房产的旅游用地在位于巴西东北部的发展约有1900个单位。在过去的三年来，每年每个单位每个项目的销售速度介于20至100个单位之间销售额为分阶段在100至300个单位（最频繁的从100到150）二手房销售价格每平方米建成区范围从R$2.500，00至R$3.500，00为中端市场的产品或者需求
比较少地区的产品。价格从R$3.500，00到R$5.000，00属于高档产品，相比于其他国家价格从R$5.000，00至R$7.000，00属于中高档产品。巴西东北部价格依然比较低（尽管根据国家现状来说）
每线性海滩土地销售价格变化是关键，目的地的吸引力和阶段发展也是价格变化参考的一部分。一些最有吸引力和最昂贵的目的地是在巴西东北部的Pipa (RN); Porto de Galina’s (PE); M araú(BA); Itacaré (BA); and Trancoso (BA).。
在过去的七年，土地的销售价格出现了大量的增长。目前人们普遍的认为价格被高估了特别是在旅游房产的预期收入和销售方面。
供给和需求预测
在2008年上半年，旅游房产供应计划公布了房产项目总额超过7.8万住宅单位。而然我们估计只有7000个住宅单位将在2014年前完成。
我们的预测是符合以下假设的：
1.巴西国内生产总值年平均增长4%至5%，以及通货膨胀目标完成在
整个预测期内。
2.北美经济的恢复和欧洲经济增长配合，共同合作将会开始与2009年的下半
年，因为那时候金融危机逐渐过去。
3.缺乏新的国内或者国际经济危机。
4.维护巴西当前旅游业发展战略在联邦和州的水平。
除此以为，我们的预测还考虑到以下信息：
1.现有的供给实现了30年的发展仅1900个单位，以及在过去几年的销售速度
也是十分有限（如前所述），即使有非常有利的市场条件。
2.尽管国外的需求一直在增加，但也显着低于最大的期望，即使在一个很有
袁隆平致敬词利的环境下面。在短期时间内，有些因素（例如国家金融危机）将阻碍国外的需求。在中期，国外的将会增加，但还没有迹象这种需求将远高于以前观察到的，或者不够高去吸收已经公布的住宅供应单位。
3.传统意义上，巨大的发展需要花几年去制造和销售所欲的住宅，因为他们
通常是小阶段开发。如果任何阶段表现不佳（销售缓慢或者价格低）后续阶段被暂停知道市场条件改善。因此，市场机制防止供给增长速度快于在正常情况下的需求。
4.在此基础上的信息和所有先有项目的个人分析，我们开发了供应和需求预
测为期7年。这个时间跨度反应了我们对一个未开发的项目至少完成它第一个阶段所需的时间的估计。
由于供应和需求之间的紧密关系，我们预期将来巴西东北部地区对旅游房产的需求足够吸收项目的供应。图片5中蓝的线代表这个预测。这个图片也展示了对另外两个可供选择的方案的预测。这些方案受制于下列可变因素的行为：
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